Red cards are relatively rare events in soccer. Sometimes, from the perspective of the stands, it feels like the worst possible result, no matter how deserved it may be (who can forget Zidane in the 2006 Cup). Sometimes, from the perspective of the players, a professional foul is warranted to prevent a goal scoring opportunity (Suarez’s hand block during the 2010 World Cup). Often, for the team at fault, the send off is followed by a motivational rally cry “we can play better with ten!”
It’s a nice thought, but it leads us to wonder is it truly possible? After all, if the game was close enough to require such drastic engagement, how could a team not only manage, but prosper with one fewer players on the field?
A team of researchers in Germany recently set out to determine exactly that. They used economic theories to analyze 3,060 matches from the Bundesliga over a 10-year stretch, for the seasons 1999/2000 to 2008/2009. Specifically, they wanted to find out whether teams whose players received a red card saw a positive or negative impact after the red card was given.
After controlling for factors such as overall team strength and home field advantage, the researchers found that bookings against a visiting team could have a positive payoff (a draw or a win) while bookings against the home team had no positive effect. Of note, the chance for a team to gain an advantage only occurs with bookings after the 70th minute. Pretty obviously, the less time in the match to play a man down, the better.
A classic example of this effect occurred during the 94 World Cup knockout match between Italy and Nigeria. Nigeria was already up by a goal when Italian Gianfranco Zola was sent off in the 75th minute. Desperately in the 89th, scoreless super star Roberto Baggio finished a brilliant run to space tying the game in regulation. Baggio sent Nigeria home after scoring on a penalty in overtime.
Teams shouldn’t get too excited about integrating fouls into their game theory. The study noted that receiving a red card early in the match usually results in a loss. And likely the rage from your overloaded teammates.
