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Champions League round of 16 odds: Who's most likely to meet in the knockout stage?

By Connor Fleming November 3, 2022
Featured Image
With Liverpool and PSG both unseeded, Monday is going to deliver some belters.
Getty Images

It was another memorable UEFA Champions League group stage with England, Germany and Portugal flexing their collective might while Spain suffered some historically bad performances. The Champions League last 16 draw date is now set for Monday, Nov. 7, at UEFA Headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, with Napoli, Liverpool, Porto, Club Brugge, Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Tottenham, Eintracht Frankfurt, Chelsea, AC Milan, Real Madrid, Leipzig, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Benfica and PSG all anxiously awaiting their fate.

There are two important rules to remember with the round of 16 draw: (1) Group winners cannot be drawn against the runner-up they played in the group stage and (2) there can be no matchups between teams from the same countries. 

It gets really interesting when you consider how four teams from England advanced, but only Liverpool as a runner-up, while four teams from Germany also advanced, but only Bayern as group winner. 

What that means, statistically speaking, is that the most likely round of 16 matchup is actually Liverpool versus Bayern. The only other potential opponents for Jürgen Klopp's Reds are Real Madrid, Benfica and Porto (Man City, Chelsea, Spurs and Napoli are all excluded because of the aforementioned rules). Bayern (unable to draw Eintracht, Leipzig, Dortmund or Inter) is limited to Liverpool, Milan, PSG and Brugge. 

On the other end of the spectrum, the Portuguese duo of Porto and Benfica both surprisingly won their groups, and they'll be open to any of the runners-up (apart from the ones they already played). Real Madrid, as the only Spanish representative remaining, is open to all group runners-up (except Leipzig), and PSG, as France's only team standing, is open to all group winners except the side they finished behind, Benfica. 

The round of 16 first legs will be played Feb. 14/15-21/22 and the second legs Mar. 7/8-14/15 of 2023.  

Champions League last 16 draw date, time, TV information

Date: Monday, November 7 | Time: 6 a.m. ET

TV: None | Stream: Paramount+

Champions League last 16 odds

Group winners (seeded): Napoli, Porto, Bayern, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Benfica 

Runners-up (unseeded): Liverpool, Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, PSG 

Napoli can draw: PSG (17.11%), RB Leipzig (21.34%), Borussia Dortmund (22.22%), Eintracht Frankfurt (22.22%), Club Brugge (17.11%)

Porto can draw: Liverpool (20.8%), PSG (10.79%), RB Leipzig (13.3%), Borussia Dortmund (13.75%), Inter Milan (14.22%), Eintracht Frankfurt (13.75%), AC Milan (13.4%)

Bayern Munich can draw: Liverpool (37.12%), PSG (19.46%), Club Brugge (19.46%), AC Milan (23.95%)

Tottenham can draw: PSG (13.88%), RB Leipzig (17.41%), Borussia Dortmund (18.14%), Inter Milan (18.89%), Club Brugge (13.88%), AC Milan (17.8%)

Chelsea can draw: PSG (13.9%), RB Leipzig (17.23%), Borussia Dortmund (17.95%), Inter Milan (19.08%), Eintracht Frankfurt (17.95%), Club Brugge (13.9%)

Real Madrid can draw: Liverpool (21.28%), PSG (10.98%), Borussia Dortmund (14.2%), Inter Milan (14.7%), Eintracht Frankfurt (14.2%), Club Brugge (10.98%), AC Milan (13.65%)

Manchester City can draw: PSG (13.88%), RB Leipzig (17.41%), Inter Milan (18.89%), Eintracht Frankfurt (18.14%), Club Brugge (13.88%), AC Milan (17.8%)

Liverpool can draw: Bayern Munich (37.12%), Real Madrid (21.28%), Porto (20.8%), Benfica (20.8%)

Club Brugge can draw: Bayern Munich (19.46%), Manchester City (13.88%), Real Madrid (10.98%), Chelsea (13.9%), Tottenham (13.88%), Napoli (17.11%), Benfica (10.79%)

Inter Milan can draw: Manchester City (18.89%), Real Madrid (14.7%), Chelsea (19.08%), Tottenham (18.89%), Porto (14.22%), Benfica (14.22%) 

Eintracht Frankfurt can draw: Manchester City (18.14%), Real Madrid (14.2%), Chelsea (17.95%), Porto (13.75%), Napoli (22.22%), Benfica (13.75%) 

AC Milan can draw: Bayern Munich (23.95%), Manchester City (17.8%), Real Madrid (13.65%), Tottenham (17.8%), Porto (13.4%), Benfica (13.4%) 

RB Leipzig can draw: Chelsea (17.23%), Tottenham (17.41%), Man City (17.41%), Porto (13.3%), Napoli (21.34%), Benfica (13.3%)

Borussia Dortmund can draw: Real Madrid (14.2%), Chelsea (17.95%), Tottenham (18.14%), Porto (13.75%), Napoli (22.22%), Benfica (13.75%)

PSG can draw: Bayern Munich (19.46%), Manchester City (13.88%), Real Madrid (10.98%), Chelsea (13.9%), Tottenham (13.88%), Porto (10.79%), Napoli (17.11%)

The18 predicts: Bayern Munich vs. Liverpool, PSG vs. Man City, Milan vs. Real Madrid, Dortmund vs. Napoli, Eintracht vs. Chelsea, Porto vs. Inter, Spurs vs. Leipzig, Brugge vs. Benfica

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