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If Your Team Loses In Week 1, Kiss That Trophy Goodbye

By Hannah Lichtenstein July 29, 2017
Featured Image
92 percent of European teams who win their respective leagues bring home points in week one. So, if your team loses on opening weekend, chances are you won't see a trophy this season.
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The start of major European leagues looms and fans are anxious to see how their teams fare on opening weekend. But how much does the first match even matter? After all, it's a long season and teams have plenty of time to rebound from week one losses. Or do they?

Looking at the statistics, it appears that the first game can set the tone for an entire season. It can either give a burst of confidence or present an omen of troubles ahead.

Don't believe us? Take a look. Below are the champions of European and North American leagues from the past five years and how they performed on their respective opening weekends over time. In Europe, anyways, the picture is pretty clear. Take home points in week one or face a slim chance (historically speaking) that you'll win the league. In North America, not so much.

 

Bundesliga – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich celebrate their 5th consecutive Bundesliga title. Photo: @isayushsingh | Twitter

2016-2017 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 6-0 win vs. Werder Bremen

2015-2016 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 5-0 win vs. Hamburger SV

2014-2015 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 2-1 win vs. VFL Wolfsburg

2013-2014 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 3-1 win vs. Borrusia Monchengladbach

2012-2013 champion: Bayern Munich. First game: 3-0 win vs. Greuther Furth

La Liga – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions

Madrid Champs

Real Madrid, La Liga champions 2017. Photo: @nancycr7rma | Twitter

2016-2017 champion: Real Madrid. First game: 2-1 win vs. Celta Vigo

2015-2016 champion: Barcelona. First game: 1-0 win vs. Malaga

2014-2015 champion: Barcelona. First game. 1-0 win vs. Elche

2013-2014 champion: Barcelona. First game: 7-0 win vs. Levante

2012-2013 champion: Barcelona. First game: 5-1 win vs. Real Sociedad 

Serie A – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions

Juventus trophy

Dybala and Higuain show off the 2017 Serie A trophy. Photo: @FanAnticsFC | Twitter

2016-2017 champion: Juventus. First game: 2-1 win vs. Fiorentina

2015-2016 champion: Juventus. First game: 1-2 loss vs. Udinese

2014-2015 champion: Juventus. First game: 1-0 win vs. Chievo

2013-2014 champion: Juventus. First game: 1-0 win vs. Sampdoria

2012-2013 champion: Juventus. First game: 2-0 win vs. Parma

 

Premier League – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions

Chelsea champs

Chelsea won the 2017 Premier League. Photo: @tipsterbobet | Twitter

2016-2017 champion: Chelsea. First game: 2-1 win vs. West Ham

2015-2016 champion: Leicester City. First game: 4-2 win vs. Sunderland

2014-2015 champion: Chelsea. First game: 3-1 win vs. Burnely

2013-2014 champion: Manchester City. First game: 4-0 win vs. Newcastle

2012-2013 champion: Manchester United. First game: 1-0 loss vs. Everton

Ligue 1 – Opening Week Performance Of Champions

Opening Week Versus Season Performance

AS Monaco, Ligue 1 champions 2017. Photo: @EPLSL | Twitter

2016-2017 champion: AS Monaco. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Guingamp

2015-2016 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 1-0 win vs. Lille

2014-2015 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Reims

2013-2014 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Montpellier

2012-2013 champion: Paris Saint-Germain. First game: 2-2 draw vs. Lorient

As a point of comparison, let's take a look at North American leagues that operate on a play-off system versus a double round-robin points system like the leagues above.

MLS  – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions

Sounders champs

The Seattle Sounders lifted their first ever MLS Cup last year. Photo: @RevistaDiezNY | Twitter

2016 champion: Seattle Sounders. First game: 0-1 loss vs. Sporting Kansas City

2015 champion: Portland Timbers. First game: 0-0 draw vs. Real Salt Lake

2014 champion: LA Galaxy. First game: 0-1 loss vs. Real Salt Lake

2013 champion: Sporting Kansas City. First game: 3-1 win vs. Philadelphia Union

2012 champion: LA Galaxy. First game 3-1 loss vs. Real Salt Lake

Liga MX – Opening Week Performance Of League Champions

Chivas champs

Chivas were the 2017 Clausura winners. Photo: @ESPNDatos | Twitter

2017 Clausura champion: Guadalajara. First game: 2-1 win vs. Pumas

2016 Apertura champion: UANL. First game: 0-0 draw vs. Santos

2016 Clausura champion: Pachuca. First game: 1-1 draw vs. Tijuana

2015 Apertura champion: UANL. First game: 1-0 win vs. Toluca

2015 Clausura champion: Santos Laguna. First game: 2-1 loss vs. Veracruz.

2014 Apertura champion: America. First game: 2-1 win vs. Leon

 

Breaking It Down: Week One Results Versus Season Success

There are some interesting findings looking at these numbers:

1. For leagues that operate on a points system (i.e., major European leagues like Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A), it is critical to bring home points in the opening weekend in order to win the league. Only two teams in the last five years from across all major European leagues have lost on opening day (versus a win or a draw) and still managed to bring home the trophy. 92% of teams who went on to win the league in a given season won or drew in their opening matches. The two teams who managed to overcome these odds were Manchester United in 2012-2013 and Juventus in 2015-2016.

2. For every European league except Ligue 1, a win in week one is a better indicator of season success. 90% of teams who went on to win Bundesliga, La Liga, Premier League or Serie A in the past five years took home three points in their opening fixtures.

3. Ligue 1 has seen more than its fair share of draws from champions in their opening fixture. Go figure. Maybe it takes a while for the French to get going.

4. For leagues that use a play-off system (such as MLS and Liga MX), week one results don't matter nearly as much. In fact, in MLS only one in five of the past league champions won their week one fixture.

Given the above, fans of European clubs should keep a close eye on their teams in week one. If they lose, chances are good you can kiss the 2017-2018 league trophy goodbye.

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