The Next Great Italian Striker Is An Invaluable Transfer Commodity

Last week, social media erupted amid news that Premier League side Arsenal had attempted to spend a huge amount of money on Serie A’s latest striking sensation, Andrea Belotti. Figures in the tens of millions were bandied about, converted from euros to pounds and back again until it seemed as though Arsenal’s penny-pinching ways had prevented their transfer business yet again. 

Torino seemed adamant: it would take at least €100 million to tempt them to sell. As quickly as the rumor spread, it died down again and the colossal grind of the transfer rumor machine switched into a new gear, sweeping up new targets, clubs and transfer sums and spitting them out in the typically scattergun-approach of the international football press.

But this rumor is worth sticking with for a while, if only because it allows us a moment to discuss the rise of Belotti and to wonder whether he might ever one day justify the kind of figures which were being mentioned last week. Before we delve in too deep, there are a few caveats.

Firstly, the rumor was likely bogus — a mistranslation of a half-answer amid a chaotic press conference, spread across the continent through retweets and whispers. Secondly, the notion of value in the modern transfer market has become thoroughly distorted. Trying to establish a player’s ‘value’ is almost impossible.

Rather than putting an exact number on Belotti’s worth, the real question should be: is he one of Europe’s most exciting striking talents? The answer is, unreservedly, yes. To that end, should he fulfill his undoubted potential, Belotti could well be invaluable. But why?

His club, Torino, are an unfashionable team. To those in the UK, the club has only really recently come into focus as the current employers of Joe ‘Hart Dawg’ Hart. The English goalkeeper, away on his Pep-enforced gap year, has brought a bit of attention to Turin’s second most famous team. That’s where most people’s knowledge of the side runs out. Sure, some might be able to recall the great Torino team which perished in the tragic plane crash decades ago, but modern impressions of the team are few and far between.

Which is slightly unfair. Torino are one of the most exciting teams in Serie A this year. The presence of Joe Hart is not even in the top five ‘Most Interesting Things About Torino’ list which will inevitably appear here during a slow news week. Returning to the subject of this particular article, however, Andrea Belotti is almost certainly number one on any current and future list.

This form is a recent thing. In the first 71 appearances of his career, Belotti netted 18 goals. In a country where youth products are often treated with suspicion, this was a decent, not outstanding record. Par for the course. Normal. 

But last January, Belotti got a brace against Frosinone in what would be a watershed moment. His team won 4-2, and the striker went on to score a further nine times that season. This season, Belotti has scored 13 times, averaging a goal every 113 minutes.

Arsenal target Andrea Belotti's stats in 2016 pic.twitter.com/ciRoRuYqD5

— IDDY HASSAN (@IddyMpangachuma) January 9, 2017

Conventional knowledge dictates that Serie A is a low-scoring league. This is not necessarily true in terms of raw goals-per-game numbers, but it is true that those best at coaching a tactical, organized defense can be found in Italy. That Belotti is in contention to be the league’s top scorer at this midway point, despite not playing for one of the traditionally ‘big’ clubs, shows how impressive his recent goal scoring form has been.

Taking on Italian defenses without the considerably better supporting cast of his rivals is tough. But the youngster has excelled.

Undoubtedly, Belotti is one of the most interesting players in the league. His good form was recognized by Torino, who worked to secure the player to a new deal in recent months. Not only did the striker get a significant pay-bump, but a buy-out clause was inserted into the contract. After a summer in which Juventus used such clauses to poach Miralem Pjanic and Gonzalo Higuain from their biggest rivals, Torino ensured that the clause only applied to clubs outside Italy. It’s worth €100 million.

This brings us to one of the issues surrounding the recent rumors. The suggested €65 million bid sounds more and more like hot air. Rather, it sounds like Torino’s sporting director establishing a pricing discourse, stating the price at which the bidding would start if foreign clubs wanted his star asset. Torino have always sold well,  they’re chasing European places, the player is tied down to a new, long term deal and is happy at the club. Right now, there is no reason to sell, especially not in the winter window.

Thus, Sporting Director Gianluca Petrachi can discuss unsubstantiated bids as much as he likes – bids which were stringently denied in North London – and his words serve to set a baseline price for any future negotiations. We have already rejected a €65 million bid from Arsenal, he might say in the summer, so don’t even bother bidding below this price. It was a throwaway line, fussed about for two days, which will help future negotiations.

For now, we can put aside discussions of Belotti’s future. He will be at Torino and he will score goals. For now, that is enough. But what of the future?

It costs nothing to dwell on thought experiments. Let us entertain the idea that the bid from Arsenal was real. Would he fit their team? Why might they want him? So far this season, Arsene Wenger has found great success by playing Alexis Sanchez up front. The former Udinese man is one of the Premier League’s best players but his contract position will cause a massive issue for Arsenal in the near future. If he won’t sign a new deal, then a replacement will be needed. Trying to replace such a player is almost impossible.

But an Andrea Belotti transfer provides many of the same skills. He can undoubtedly finish. He works incredibly hard for the team. While he lacks in the guile which makes Sanchez such a dangerous player, he makes up for it by being more ruthlessly efficient than the Chilean. More suited to leading the line and better at hold-up play, Belotti’s rough-and-tumble, run-through-walls approach could blossom in the freewheeling, entertaining idiocy of the Premier League.

Like Sanchez, Belotti tirelessly terrifies defenses. Wenger has talked in the past about how the best strikers, these days, often come from South America. Belotti, whose style differs from the Italian forwards of the past, could well be the closest thing to the Sanchez template in Europe right now. Even in a league where teams try to squeeze every spare inch out of the pitch, the Italian manages to find space. Unleashed in a looser, more expansive league, he could be devastating.

Paying €100 million for Andrea Belotti is an incalculable risk. The Italian has had twelve excellent months and his value to Torino is impossible to judge. But, should he continue to improve, Belotti would fit right in at one of Europe’s super-clubs.

For now, stories of a massive transfer might be premature. But there is no doubt that Belotti’s future (and his future fee) will be lurking at the back of many people’s minds. Andrea Belotti’s future could well be at Arsenal or any other big side. Right now, the interest around Belotti is more than justified.