Brazil will be at the World Cup this Summer, and that is just about where all uninitiated preconceptions about what kind of team Brazil is will end. They are also talented — home to Marta, 5-time Player of the Year — but after that it is hard to say that Brazil are anything more than fool’s gold.
They come into the tournament ranked 7th in the world despite posting a lackluster record of 2-1-2 in 2015. They are without a doubt the best team in South America, but that means so much less in the Women’s game than it does in the Men’s. After Brazil at number 7, the drop off to the next ranked team is 21 spots, where we find Colombia at 28th. After that, there is Argentina at 36th, Chile at 42nd, and fans of Luis Suarez will be shocked to find Uruguary all the way down at 70th. With such a lack of competition, it is not surprising that Brazil have won every single Copa America Feminina that has been played, with the exception of one in which they placed second.
This continental dominance has led to some gaudy, but inflated, numbers for its players at the international level. The aforementioned Marta has scored 92 goals in 91 international matches, and her likely strike partner, Cristiane, has scored 76 in 104. Both of those players are undoubtedly talented overall and in the goal-scoring department, but not to the extent that they are twice as good as a player such as Germany’s Dsenifer Marozsan, who’s scoring rate is half theirs at 23 in 47.
This disparity between Brazil’s continental competition and everyone else is no more apparent than in their overall record against the elite. They have a losing record against every single one of the nations ranked above them - Germany, USA, France, Japan, England - with the exception of Sweden, who Brazil lead in an unconvincing fashion 4-1-3 all time. Americans in particular should not be worried: in 32 matches against the US, Brazil has lost 25 times.
But even fool’s gold has some value, and a player that has long been one to be reckoned with is the aforementioned Marta, of whom everyone, American’s especially, should be very, very afraid. You can bet every single member of the USWNT knows this goal:
That being said, it is hard to see Marta carrying this team to the Final or even a semifinal. Her individual skills will have plenty of chance to shine — she will benefit from Brazil’s Borussia-Dortmund-esque high press and defensive line, and will likely receive the ball in good positions when the defense is in a suboptimal position to defend her, but that just isn’t enough against good opponents. The Germanys and United States of the tournament will be too disciplined and skilled to succumb to Brazil’s press, or at least enough so that, eventually, Brazil will be choked out of productivity in front of goal by one team or the other.
If Marta and Cristiane submit superhuman performances, Brazil will reach the semifinals, if not, they might not even make the quarters. They are the favorites to win their group, but doing so will mean they face the runners-up from the Group of Death in the Round-of-16: either the USWNT or Sweden. Brazil’s record against the elite teams of the world leaves little room for faith in advancement.
Brazil will still be a fun team to watch, regardless of where they finish in the tournament. Marta alone is worth the price of admission or time invested. A little joga bonita goes a long way.
