We’re getting into the nitty gritty of the World Cup group stage. That means one thing: It’s time to pull out those calculators and abacuses (abaci?) and start crunching numbers for the countless World Cup knockout stage possibilities.
Starting Monday, the World Cup will have four matches per day, with two simultaneous kickoffs as the group stage comes to a close. Aside from those poor teams that have already been eliminated (sorry Morocco and Peru), everyone will be breaking down the World Cup knockout stage possibilities to figure out how each team can advance and in what position.
We broke down the World Cup group stage rules here, but a quick rundown on how tiebreakers work. After points, ties are broken by goal differential and then total goals scored. If two or more teams are still tied, then it goes to head-to-head, goal difference in matches between concerned teams, goals scored in those matches and finally fair play score (fewest yellow and red cards). If teams are still tied, FIFA will draw lots, but that’s an unlikely scenario.
After that, teams are placed in a 16-team, single-elimination bracket, about which we’ve written about in depth. Teams from the same group are placed on opposite sides of the bracket. Read all about how the World Cup works here and check out the schedule here.
So with that, let’s break down the World Cup knockout stage possibilities.
World Cup Knockout Stage Possibilities
Group A
Monday, June 25 (10 a.m. EST): Uruguay vs. Russia, Saudi Arabia vs. Egypt
The World Cup knockout stage possibilities for Group A are pretty straightforward. Russia and Uruguay have already qualified. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are eliminated, making their match meaningless outside of bragging rights (and watching Mo Salah).
Because of its superior goal difference, Russia can win the group with a win or draw while Uruguay takes the group with a win.
Because Group A plays its final matches before Group B, neither team will be able to take into account its Round of 16 opponent when determining how hard to try. The opponents could be European powerhouses Spain or Portugal, but Iran also still has a chance.
Group B
Monday, June 25 (2 p.m. EST): Iran vs. Portugal, Spain vs. Morocco
Morocco has been eliminated but Spain, Portugal and Iran are still in the running. Spain currently leads the group based on its superior fair-play score (fewer cards than Portugal).
Spain and Portugal are in the driver’s seats — a win or draw for either is enough to advance regardless of other results. Iran can qualify with a win.
Spain wins the group with a win and a better result than Portugal; likewise, Portugal wins the group with a win and a better result than Spain. Iran wins the group with a win and a Spain loss.
Depending upon the results earlier in the day, Spain and Portugal, the clear favorites, might change how hard they try for goal difference. If Russia wins the group, don’t expect either team to run up the score because both teams would rather face Russia than Uruguay. But if Uruguay wins the group, Spain and Portugal could be in a race to score the most goals.
Group C
Tuesday, June 26 (10 a.m. EST): Denmark vs. France, Australia vs. Peru
France has clinched a spot in the Round of 16 while Denmark and Australia are fighting for their lives. Peru has been eliminated after two narrow losses, much like Morocco.
France wins the group with a win or draw against the Danes, who in turn would win the group with a win and finish second with a draw.
Australia must beat Peru and hope France beats Denmark in addition to making up goal difference.
Unfortunately for the Socceroos, France might not play its strongest team, because a first-place finish in Group C could lead to a match against Argentina in the Round of 16. Fortunately for the Socceroos, even a second-choice France team is more talented than 80 percent of the teams in Russia. That said, the way Croatia is playing right now, I don’t think anyone wants to play the Blazers.
Group D
Tuesday, June 26 (2 p.m. EST): Nigeria vs. Argentina, Iceland vs. Croatia
Group D is quite crazy and few could have predicted the table to look this way at this point. Croatia is through, likely as group winner but not necessarily, while Nigeria, Iceland and Argentina all still have World Cup knockout stage possibilities.
Croatia wins the group with a win or draw, or a loss if Nigeria draws, loses or wins without making up the goal difference. A win for the Super Eagles clinches at least second place, but they can win the group with win and Croatia defeat if they make up the five-goal difference.
Nigeria can advance with a draw if Iceland draws, loses or wins by one goal (or two if Nigeria has more total goals).
If Iceland wins and Argentina wins, whichever has the better goal difference advances. Neither Iceland nor Argentina completely controls its own destiny, though Argentina perhaps as the edge knowing a win would likely be enough if Croatia doesn’t lose.
To put it simply for Lionel Messi fans, Argentina must beat Nigeria and have a better result than Iceland does against Croatia.
Croatia is likely to want to at least get a draw to win the group to make sure to avoid France in the Round of 16.
Group E
Wednesday, June 27 (2 p.m. EST): Serbia vs. Brazil, Switzerland vs. Costa Rica
Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia can all finish anywhere from first, second or third (or in Serbia’s case, fourth); Costa Rica is getting ready for vacation. Although Brazil has the group lead and is the favorite, Switzerland is perhaps in the best position, knowing it’s facing a team with nothing to play for.
Brazil and Switzerland are in nearly the same scenario. Either wins the group with a win and obtaining better goal difference. Either advances with a draw regardless of other results. Brazil can win the group with a draw and Switzerland loss. Switzerland cannot win the group with a draw.
Serbia advances with a win and would win the group with a win and a Switzerland loss or draw. Serbia can advance with a draw if Switzerland loses by more than one goal or if Serbia ends up with more total goals.
Before the tournament, finishing first seemed to be top priority for Group E to avoid playing Germany first thing in the knockout rounds. While Germany can still win the group, it’s not looking likely, as you’ll see below. However, for some reason Group F plays before Group E on Wednesday, so teams will know whether or not they want to get first or second, though given how narrow the margin of error is, expect all teams to try to get the best possible result regardless of what happens earlier in the day.
Group F
Wednesday, June 27 (10 a.m. EST): South Korea vs. Germany, Mexico vs. Sweden
Despite two wins from two matches, Mexico hasn’t clinched a spot in the Round of 16 just yet. Germany and Sweden can both still win the group while South Korea is still technically alive.
A three-way tie would be created if Germany and Sweden both win, meaning goal difference and total goals would be used to decide who advances; a team with six points could go home for the first time (groups have finished with three teams on six points before, but that was when third-place teams could still advance). There could also be a three-way tie for second if South Korea and Mexico both win. Because every team has played in a 1-0 and 2-1 game (regardless of which side each was on), tiebreakers could come down to fair play because goals and goal differential are so similar.
Let’s go through the World Cup knockout stage possibilities for this wild group team by team.
Mexico wins the group with a win or a draw. El Tri advances with a loss of one goal or less. El Tri advances with any loss if Germany fails to win.
Germany wins the group with a win and a Sweden win if Die Mannschaft has a greater goal difference or scores more goals. Germany advances with a win and Mexico win or draw, or a win and a Sweden win with tiebreakers. Germany advances with a draw and a Mexico win, or a Sweden draw with German tiebreakers. Germany advances with a loss with if Mexico wins and Germany has tiebreakers.
Sweden wins the group with a win that’s a better result than Germany (or equal with tiebreakers). A Sweden win of two goals or more automatically qualifies Sweden regardless of other results. Sweden advances with a win and Germany draw or loss or with a Germany win if it gets the edge in the tiebreakers. Sweden advances with a draw if Germany loses or Germany draws and Sweden has the edge on tiebreakers. Sweden advances with a loss if South Korea wins and Sweden has tiebreakers.
South Korea must win and hope Sweden loses to have any chance. South Korea advances with a win of two goals or more and a Sweden loss. South Korea advances with a win and Sweden loss if South Korea scores more goals.
Without knowing how Brazil turns out in Group E until later in the day, it’s unlikely Mexico will risk a loss and will most likely play for at least a draw to win the group.
Group G
Thursday, June 28 (2 p.m EST): England vs. Belgium, Panama vs. Tunisia
England and Belgium are through; Tunisia and Panama are eliminated. The only game that matters on Thursday is the England-Belgium game.
If England or Belgium wins Thursday, that team wins the group, the other is second. If it’s a draw, because both teams have identical goal differential and total goals scored, FIFA fair-play points will determine who finishes top.
England has received one fewer yellow card thus far than Belgium (3-2), so if the teams receive an equal number of cards in their match, the Three Lions win the group with a draw. But if it’s a draw and England gets one more point than Belgium, a drawing of lots will be used to determine which team wins the group. And if it’s a draw and England gets more than one fair-play point more than Belgium, the Red Devils win the group.
Group G will be the last group to complete play, so it’s possible the teams decide how hard they want to try based on how the bracket is laid out to that point.
Group H
Thursday, June 28 (10 a.m. EST): Japan vs. Poland, Senegal vs. Colombia
Japan and Senegal are in the best position after their upsets in the first match, but Colombia also controls its own destiny. Poland is out of World Cup knockout stage possibilities, the top-ranked team to be eliminated after two matches (No. 8).
Japan and Senegal both win the group with a win that’s better than the result of the other. So if Japan beats Poland by more than Senegal beats Colombia, the Samurai Blue win the group; the converse is true for Senegal. Japan and Senegal both can advance with a draw, regardless of the other result. If both draw, goal difference and goals scored would be used to determine the group winner between the two. If both lose, the team that has the better loss advances.
Colombia advances with a win and can win the group with a win and a Japan draw or loss. Colombia can advance with a draw if Japan loses due to goal differential.
Because both Group G foes are of high quality (and will be playing later in the day), don’t expect any teams to try to finagle a better opponent in the Round of 16.
Note: All graphics for the World Cup knockout stage possibilities are from @FIFAWorldCup | Twitter.
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