Spanish League Leaders Atlético Madrid travel to FC Barcelona this Saturday in a match that will decide the La Liga title. Atlético holds a three point cushion over Barcelona at the top of the league table, meaning that a win or draw will clinch Atlético its first league title since the 1995-96 season. In a year that has been magical for Atlético, can Messi and his mates find a way to win tomorrow?
Both clubs stumbled in their quest for the title during last week’s fixtures. Barcelona drew 0-0 at Elche, but thankfully for Barça, spectacular goalkeeping from Malaga keeper Willy Caballero (translated as Willy Gentleman, what a prestigious name!) in the last minute of stoppage time prevented Atlético from a win that would have clinched the league and rendered this Saturday’s match meaningless.
The two clubs have already played five times this season: they drew 1-1 in Madrid and then 0-0 in Barcelona in the Super Cup at the beginning of the campaign (Barcelona won the Super Cup on away goals), and drew 0-0 in Madrid in the league in January. The most significant fixtures between the clubs (until Saturday) occurred when the clubs drew each other in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. Atlético advanced 2-1 on aggregate - a 1-1 draw at Camp Nou and a 1-0 win in Madrid after Koke's goal at the five-minute mark held up - and went on to defeat Chelsea in the semifinals to set up a highly anticipated Madrid derby in the Champions League Final on May 24th. Please note that of the five matches between the clubs this season to this point, Barcelona has failed to win a single time.
Atlético Madrid enters Saturday’s match with a chance at the double, with the Champions League Final one week away. It is widely expected that star striker Diego Costa will be moving to Chelsea after the season, so this season represents the club’s best chance at these prestigious trophies for perhaps years to come.
For Barcelona, the 2013-14 campaign has been full of disappointment and heartbreak. Barcelona’s former manager Tito Vilanova lost his long battle with cancer and passed away in April. On the pitch, in addition to losing in the quarterfinals of the Champions League, Los Blaugranas lost to arch-rival Real Madrid in the finals of the Copa del Rey, leaving Saturday’s match as its last option for redemption in the season, although star Lionel Messi isn’t sure even a league title would be enough to save the year. Regardless of the result on Saturday, it is widely expected that Barcelona manager Gerardo “Tata” Martino will move on in the summer, following his disappointing debut season at Camp Nou.
Barcelona’s struggles this season have prompted a rash of theories that their “dynasty” is over. Yet with a plethora of young talent on hand, including stars Messi (26), Neymar (22), Cesc Fàbregas (27), and Jordi Alba (25), combined with its financial resources (which they’ll be able to use since FIFA rescinded its previously-imposed transfer ban), it’s hard to imagine that Barcelona won’t be competing for silverware both domestically and in the Champions League for years to come.
Based on the intensity of their previous matches, viewers are in for a treat this Saturday when the clubs square off to decide the La Liga title in a match that should be more dramatic than Sergio Busquet’s flops. (Ok maybe not.) Although each club faces many questions about their future this summer, no one will be thinking about that on Saturday afternoon, as Atlético tries to break the vice-grip that Barcelona and Real Madrid have had on the league title and become the first club other than those two to win the league since Valencia in 2003-04.
When the match kicks off, all eyes will be on Barcelona star Lionel Messi. It was announced today that Messi has inked a new contract with Barcelona that will pay him a net of 20 million Euros, or approximately $27 million, per season (due to the high tax rate in Western European countries, it is common for players to negotiate their salary in terms of net take home pay rather than pre-tax…must be nice). Incredibly, Messi has been criticized this season for not coming through in the club's big matches, even seeming disinterested at times, with some commentators speculating that he is more focused on the World Cup this summer than on the campaign with Barcelona. If Barcelona is to win for the first time in five tries against Atlético this season, Messi will have to step up and be his normal, dazzling self, while hoping that his running mate Neymar is fit enough to contribute to the attack.
For Atlético, striker and Chelsea summer target Diego Costa must be licking his chops as Barcelona's back-line has been decimated with injuries. Although Pique and Alba have been declared fit for the match, there must be a question as to how healthy they really are and whether they will be able to deal with Costa's threat through the middle of the pitch. If Costa is truly moving on this summer, what better parting gift could he give the Atlético faithful than by delivering a league title?
Going into the second leg of the Champions League Quarterfinal, Atlético was widely expected to play conservatively as it had the advantage on away goals, but it took the match to Barcelona and pressed heavily from the opening whistle. The tactics surprised Barcelona and led to the early goal that proved to be the difference. Similarly, Atlético enters this match with a clear-cut advantage as it only needs a draw to lift the trophy. Will it be so similarly aggressive this time? At The18, we don't think so. The match in the Champions League was at home, whereas this match is at Camp Nou. Expect Atlético to sit back at the start, let Barcelona have the ball, and then attack on the counter, which has been the most effective way of playing Barcelona over the last few years. Barcelona will have to come out attacking, so if Atlético can weather the storm at the early part of the match, it should force Barcelona into a "plan B," which has often been hard to conjure for Los Blaugranas.
In the end, it seems as though this is Atlético's year and we don't see this Barcelona team, with so many of its players in questionable health and potentially focused on their World Cup ambitions, knocking them off.
Prediction: Barcelona 1, Atlético Madrid 1, Atlético raises the La Liga trophy. Make sure you have your Sangría ready.
Barcelona-Atlético Madrid airs Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 12:00 p.m. EST on beINsport.
