It’s the question that’s been on every American soccer fan’s mind since Oct. 10, 2017: Will USMNT qualify for World Cup 2022? More than four years later, the Americans are in the thick of qualifying, and it may again come down to the wire. So what are the odds USMNT makes World Cup 2022, and do we think it will happen?
The U.S. men’s national team is in an eight-nation group from which 3.5 teams will go to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The three teams at the top of the table after a round-robin campaign qualify directly to Qatar; the fourth-place team must play Oceania’s best team in a one-match battle for the final spot in the World Cup.
The U.S. is currently second in the group and in a strong position to qualify. But the table is incredibly tight at the top, with the first four places separated by two points.
We’ve already discussed in great detail what exactly the USMNT needs to qualify for the World Cup, so click here if you want to know the nitty gritty on what needs to happen to get the U.S. to Qatar. Essentially, the USMNT needs to reach 18 to 31 points, with the actual number probably closer to 25 to be sure of qualification.
Will USMNT Qualify For World Cup 2022?
The question now becomes: Will the USMNT actually complete the job and qualify for the World Cup? The answer is subjective; in sports no one knows exactly what will happen.
Personally, I think the U.S. has the talent and ability to qualify for Qatar 2022. Then again, I thought the same in 2017, when Bruce Arena’s men failed to get the job done and missed out on Russia 2018.
If soccer were played on paper, the USMNT would qualify easily. Only Mexico can come close to talent, and while Canada has improved, there is a clear separation between the top two and everyone else. Soccer is not played on paper, but on pitches that are far too often freezing cold.
One good barometer on the likelihood of something happening is to look at oddsmakers involved in sports betting. Whether you hate sports gambling or love it, the truth is more often than not the oddsmakers have a pretty good idea of what’s going to happen, or at least enough to always make money off the people who do gamble.
Odds USMNT Makes World Cup 2022
If you look at the odds, the USMNT is a near lock to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
SportsBetting.ag has the odds with a 97.8 percent implied probability the U.S. qualifies, which equates to -4500 odds betting for the team to qualify and +2200 odds betting the team doesn’t qualify. The site also has the U.S. at +8000 to win the entire World Cup, or 80-1 odds.
You can probably put good money on the USMNT qualifying for the 2022 World Cup based on those odds. But again, this is soccer, where anything can happen. Anyone who followed the USMNT’s last World Cup qualifying campaign knows how quickly things can unravel.