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The Groups Are Drawn — Here’s How Likely Each Concacaf Team Is To Make The Knockout Stages

The World Cup groups are ready to go and boy oh boy are there some tantalizing games awaiting the soccer world this winter. In case you missed the draw, here is how the eight groups look.

The Concacaf representatives — United States, Mexico, Canada and likely Costa Rica — will each have drastically different feelings about their opposition heading into the 2022 World Cup. Here are the Concacaf World Cup odds of escaping from the group stage.

The scale will be 1-10, with one being your country is finishing bottom of the group and 10 meaning your team will cruise through the group stage with their eyes closed.

Let’s get into it.

Concacaf World Cup Odds Of Advancing Past Group Stage

United States

Odds Of Advancing: 8/10

Gregg Berhalter and the USMNT arguably got put in the easiest group of the four Concacaf nations. England will be a mighty test for the USMNT, but the two other games will be where America gets its points.

Berhalter should fancy his side against the likes of Iran and the winner of Scotland/Ukraine vs. Wales. USMNT fans should be very excited about this group.


Nov. 21: USA vs. UEFA Playoff Winner (Wales, Scotland or Ukraine)
Nov. 25: USA vs. England
Nov. 29: USA vs. Iran

Prediction: U.S. finishes tied with England on top of the table with seven points.


Odds Of Advancing: 7/10

I believe in El Tri to get through to the Round of 16. Despite this being “the worst Mexico team yet,” it still managed to finish tied on points for first in the Concacaf table. Mexico will have a chance for revenge on the old nemesis Argentina.

In my mind, Group C will come down to Mexico vs. Poland. If Mexico’s defense can repel Robert Lewandowski, then the odds are certainly in favor of El Tri. We will know very quickly this result as Mexico opens the group stage against Poland.


Nov. 22: Mexico vs. Poland
Nov. 26: Mexico vs. Argentina
Nov. 30: Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia

Prediction: Mexico finishes second in the group with six points.


Odds Of Advancing: 5/10

Canada’s mission of getting to its first-ever knockout stage will be an uphill battle but certainly not impossible. Group F is open for the taking for all four teams in the group. Some of the most talented players in the world — Alphonso Davies, Kevin de Bruyne, Achraf Hakimi and Luka Modrić — are sprinkled across the four teams.

This group will be exciting. The Canucks have proven themselves as respectable opposition in Concacaf, now the question is how does this team perform on the world stage? Belgium will be the first opponent, and the result of that game could dictate how the tournament goes.


Nov. 23: Canada vs. Belgium
Nov. 27: Canada vs. Croatia
Dec. 1: Canada vs. Morocco

Prediction: Canada finishes third in the group with three points (victory vs. Morocco and losses to Belgium and Croatia).

Costa Rica

Odds Of Advancing: 2/10

Never say never. Costa Rica topped the group of death in 2014 by going undefeated against Italy, England and Uruguay. That same magic didn’t show up for the Ticos at the 2018 World Cup, and I fear that will be the case once again.

The Costa Rica national team should be monumentally proud of themselves for making it this far considering they only won one of their first seven qualifiers. Going undefeated in the last seven games — winning six of those games — has Costa Rica in a playoff vs. New Zealand, which I am confident Costa Rica will win.

An aging roster doesn’t pose the biggest threat to a stacked group of Germany, Spain and Japan. I encourage any Costa Rican readers to look away from my prediction.

Schedule (if Costa Rica doesn’t lose to New Zealand):

Nov. 23: Costa Rica vs. Spain
Nov. 27: Costa Rica vs. Japan
Dec. 1: Costa Rica vs. Germany

Prediction: Costa Rica finishes fourth in the group with zero points.

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