It’s relegation season in the Premier League and there are three teams living on the edge of the drop: Sunderland, Newcastle United, and Norwich City.
Each of the three teams control their own fate to a degree. 17th place Sunderland has the most clear cut fate: with two games left to play, including one today, if they win out they stay up.
The fates of 18th place Newcastle and 19th Norwich are a little more muddled. Newcastle, ahead by three points but with one less game in hand, could win its last game and still get relegated if Norwich wins its last two games and secures a goal differential +2 greater than Newcastle’s.
Newcastle will have the hardest time staying up. They must play Tottenham in their last game of the year. Spurs have run riot for most of the season, sweeping aside teams of Newcastle’s calibre. Yes, Spurs no long have anything to play for in the league, but they will want to end the season on a good note. Even 80% of Spurs should be able to beat Newcastle.
Sunderland and Norwich both play Everton and Watford in their last two matches of the season. Norwich obviously has to win at least one game to make things interesting, and they’ll have a real chance to do so as mediocre Everton and Watford have nothing to play for. The same could be said of Sunderland’s chances of winning, but they lost both of their reverse fixtures against Everton and Watford by a combined 5 goals; Norwich, for it’s part, took a point against Everton.
The unlikeliest of circumstances would see Sunderland grab a point in it’s last two matches and still go down. For this to happen, Norwich would have to win out and Newcastle would have to beat Spurs.
All things considered, Newcastle and Norwich are the likeliest to go down. If Newcastle loses to Tottenham, Newcastle go down. If Norwich City loses out, wins one match by too little and the other by too much, or if Sunderland gets a more than a point in two matches, Norwich go down.
The betting man’s money is on Sunderland to be in the EPL next year.
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