Liverpool have suffered a series of nadirs over the 2014-15 season, culminating in their 3-0 humbling at the hands of Manchester United in December. Yet, since that performance at Old Trafford, Brendan Rodgers’ men are unbeaten in the league and have picked up 17 from a possible 21 points in their last seven games. Had the league started on Christmas Day, Liverpool would be top of the table.
So what’s changed? For perhaps the first time ever under Brendan Rodgers, Liverpool are defending as a cohesive unit. The switch to a back five, and the introduction of Emre Can, has brought a degree of stability and composure previously unseen: Liverpool have kept three clean sheets in a row in the Premier League and have conceded just five in their last seven fixtures, a 48% reduction in their goals per game average compared to the previous 16 matches.
It’s not just at the back that Liverpool have improved: after all, they weren’t exactly defensively robust last season. Rodgers has his team scoring again, not least due to the move of Raheem Sterling into the centre, and Mario Balotelli to the bench. With a lively, intelligent and willing runner in front of him, Philippe Coutinho has rediscovered the form that saw him score five goals and assist seven more last year, with Sterling providing the Brazilian with both an outlet as well as space. All four of Coutinho’s assists this season have come since Christmas.
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But perhaps the factor that will give Liverpool fans most hope for the second half of the season is the long-awaited return of Daniel Sturridge from injury. As Anfield’s idiot fringe readied their anti-Rodgers plane protest late last year, it was as though Merseyside had somehow forgotten that D-Stu – prolific last season with 21 league goals – hadn’t played a game for The Reds since August. His 20 minute cameo last weekend – in which, predictably, he scored – was only his fourth appearance of the 2014-15 season.
While Suarez, rightly, took the plaudits for his display last season, it’s positively criminal to overlook Sturridge’s contribution. All the evidence suggests that, even without their Uruguayan talisman, Sturridge can body-pop Liverpool back into the top four:
- Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Liverpool average 2.1 points per game when Sturridge has played and Luis Suarez hasn’t: that’s Champions League form
- Sturridge has six goals in his last nine appearances for Liverpool when Suarez hasn’t played
- Since the start of 2013-14, Liverpool have never lost a league game when Sturridge has scored (17 wins, 4 draws)
- Last season Sturridge directly contributed (either scored or assisted) a goal every 81 minutes
As your financial advisor should always tell you, past results are no guide to future returns, but history strongly suggests that when Daniel Sturridge plays – with or without Luis Suarez – Liverpool are an infinitely more successful team. The Englishman has the talent, work-ethic and spark to super-charge Liverpool’s recovery, starting with this weekend’s Merseyside Derby: Liverpool haven’t lost against Everton in their last nine matches, and Sturridge scored three against The Toffees last term.
With Sturridge fit and healthy, Liverpool are a serious Champions League prospect once again: the Premier League should brace itself for an outbreak of body-popping between now and the end of May.
