Some of you may still be feeling the effects of the blown opportunity by the USMNT yesterday, but it’s time to move on and look at what needs to be done versus Germany on June 26th at 12 P.M. ET.
Here is the easy part.
If the US beats, or ties Germany they will advance to the Round of 16.
A win would have the US finishing first in the Group of Death and their next match would be on Monday, June 30th against the second place finishers of Group F (Argentina, Nigeria or Iran. Bosnia- Herzegovina is eliminated). If they tie against Germany, they will finish second in the group and face the winner of Group H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea) on Tuesday, July 1.
Now if the US loses to Germany they still can get out of the Group stage, but then their fate will fall into the hands of Portugal and Ghana.
And, of course it gets complicated. So, here's what you need to be looking for on your second screen while the Americans try to control their own fate on your primary screen (remember that the final Group games are played simultaneously):
- If Portugal and Ghana draw, the United States will advance to the Round of 16 in second place.
If Ghana wins
- The Black Stars still need to make up 2 goals in goal differential on the US (US is currently +1 in goal differential while Ghana is -1) in order to advance out of the group stage. In other words, if the US loses by 1 goal and Ghana wins by 2 goals (+3 net for Ghana), Ghana would advance. Or, if the U.S. loses by 2 or more goals and Ghana wins by one or more, Ghana will also go through.
- If, however, Ghana wins by one goal and the US loses by one goal (leaving them even on goal differential), it would come down to who scored the most goals overall across the three games. Right now the U.S. has a one goals-for advantage (4-3) over Ghana. So, let's say Ghana wins 1-0 and the US loses 2-1, the US is through because each team scored one goal and the US would maintain our goals-for advantage. If Ghana scores 2 more goals than the US does (say they win 3-0 and the US loses 2-1), Ghana will go through.
- If the two teams end up even in goals scored (so Ghana scores 1 more goal in winning than the US scores in losing), the United States would progress as they've already beaten Ghana in the group stage. (Yes folks, we have to get this far before the fact that we beat them head-to-head actually matters).
If Portugal wins
- Portugal has to overcome an even bigger goal differential deficit to advance ahead of the United States (POR is -4). It is a tall and unlikely order for the Portuguese, but if they pulled back level with the US in differential, it would again go down to who scored the most goals in the group stages overall, with the US currently holding a 4-2 advantage.
- If it is all still tied after that (which would require a pair of very strange results, like Portugal winning 6-0 and the US losing 5-4...), the head-to-head matchup was a tie...so, FIFA will pretty much pick a name out of a hat. Yes, a hat.
So US fans, the easiest way for the Americans to get to the round of 16 is to tie or beat Germany. If that doesn’t happen, then we all become Portugal fans and hope they don’t win by more than 4. Now although it is looking into the distant future, if they were to win their next game and make it to the quarterfinals finishing first in the group, they would play on... July 4th. Now wouldn't that be an exciting independance day!
